JIM ROGERS BLOG is An Unofficial Tracking Blog of Global Investor Wall Street King and author Jim Rogers , his investments speeches interviews ideas and much more....
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Jim Rogers : Bull Markets climb a wall of worry.
HardAssetsInvestor: A lot of investment banks have recently called an end to the commodities supercycle that began more than a decade ago. Do you think they’re wrong?
Jim Rogers : I'm delighted to hear that. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. I'm not quite sure where the supply is coming from that would cause the bull market to end. Maybe they know something I don’t. But when you look back at the stock bull market from 1982 to 2000, stocks collapsed in 1987, ’89, ’90, ’94, ’97, ’98. And every time, people said the bull market is over. But it wasn’t. This bull market in commodities will definitely come to an end someday. But someday is not here yet. - in HardAssetsInvestor
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
Long Bull Markets Always End In A Bubble Or Mania
"Long bull markets always end in a bubble or mania before it’s over with. And when there's a bubble in gold, I hope I'm smart enough to get out. We haven't seen a bubble yet. Until recently, if you went around any U.S. city, you would see signs outside many jewelry stores saying “We buy gold.” And the American people line up to sell gold. Later there’ll be signs there saying, “We sell gold,” and people will be lining up to buy it in big ways. That hasn’t happened yet." - in Guru Focus
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
Jim Rogers Invested More in GOLD than in SILVER , Value Wise
FM: You are one of the few well-known investors who actually says when he is buying or selling something. Most are scared of giving away their secret formula. What percentage of your portfolio is in precious metals?
Jim Rogers : First of all I won’t say, but second of all I don’t know. I don’t have a committee that I have to answer to, so I don’t have a clue. I do know that I own a fair amount of precious metals, I’ve been buying them for years and I never sold them.
FM: Are you more invested in gold or in silver?
Jim Rogers : Value wise more in gold, because gold sells for many multiples of the price of silver. But maybe I own more ounces of silver. But so what? Gold is so much more valuable. - in goldmoney
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
Jim Rogers : China will have many setbacks
HAI: Do you think China’s transition from a manufacturing-based economy to a more consumer-oriented economy is going smoothly?
Jim Rogers: I read all this stuff in the press. And I'm not quite sure how you tell 1.3 billion people they’ve got to stop building infrastructure and start consuming. That’s not the way the world works, at least with no human beings I know. It’s happening gradually, just as it happened in the U.S., U.K. and many other countries historically. There are going to be setbacks in China. Goodness knows, no economy or market goes straight up. They all have setbacks. China will have many setbacks.
In the 19th century, America had a horrible Civil War. We had several depressions, very little rule of law, very few human rights. And yet we became a pretty successful country in the 20th century. So China is going to have plenty of problems. What I plan to do is, when I see serious problems in China again, I hope I'm smart enough to pick up the phone and buy more China. - in HardAssetsInvestor
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
Jim Rogers: I read all this stuff in the press. And I'm not quite sure how you tell 1.3 billion people they’ve got to stop building infrastructure and start consuming. That’s not the way the world works, at least with no human beings I know. It’s happening gradually, just as it happened in the U.S., U.K. and many other countries historically. There are going to be setbacks in China. Goodness knows, no economy or market goes straight up. They all have setbacks. China will have many setbacks.
In the 19th century, America had a horrible Civil War. We had several depressions, very little rule of law, very few human rights. And yet we became a pretty successful country in the 20th century. So China is going to have plenty of problems. What I plan to do is, when I see serious problems in China again, I hope I'm smart enough to pick up the phone and buy more China. - in HardAssetsInvestor
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
Shale Oil and Gas : The Reserves may not be what we thought
HAI: Have
your views evolved on oil at all following the boom in U.S. production
over the last couple years? Has it tempered your bullishness? Or do you
think this is just a blip in the big picture?
Jim Rogers: It’s certainly caused a big supply increase in the U.S. We cannot ignore that or avoid that. But as I said before, all other oil reserves around the world are in steady decline, whether it’s 4 percent a year or 6 percent a year, I don’t really know. I know those are the various estimates. And the interesting thing about shale oil and gas is that in countries like Poland, the majors have abandoned drilling there because they have found it’s not quite economical.
We’re also finding that these wells are very short-lived. For example, with natural gas, what happened was everybody started drilling. And they rushed out and had a wonderful time. But now it’s four or five years later, and we’re finding out these wells decline very quickly. And so people are finding it’s not nearly as much fun as it was in the beginning, especially in the beginning when a lot of them had to drill acreage quickly to maintain their leasehold obligations.
I think the reserves may not be what we thought. And some of the gas companies have reported decreases in their estimated reserves because the wells dry up pretty quickly.
The same is happening with oil. The oil boom started later than the boom in shale gas. And we’re finding that those wells decline at the rate of, depending on who you believe, 38 to 69 percent in the first year. I don’t have a clue, because I've never drilled a shale oil well. But we do know that those are fairly short-lived, too. So this has been great fun, and it may last a while. But I would suspect it’s not quite the boom that the press seems to think it is. We’ll find out. - in HardAssetsInvestor
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
Jim Rogers: It’s certainly caused a big supply increase in the U.S. We cannot ignore that or avoid that. But as I said before, all other oil reserves around the world are in steady decline, whether it’s 4 percent a year or 6 percent a year, I don’t really know. I know those are the various estimates. And the interesting thing about shale oil and gas is that in countries like Poland, the majors have abandoned drilling there because they have found it’s not quite economical.
We’re also finding that these wells are very short-lived. For example, with natural gas, what happened was everybody started drilling. And they rushed out and had a wonderful time. But now it’s four or five years later, and we’re finding out these wells decline very quickly. And so people are finding it’s not nearly as much fun as it was in the beginning, especially in the beginning when a lot of them had to drill acreage quickly to maintain their leasehold obligations.
I think the reserves may not be what we thought. And some of the gas companies have reported decreases in their estimated reserves because the wells dry up pretty quickly.
The same is happening with oil. The oil boom started later than the boom in shale gas. And we’re finding that those wells decline at the rate of, depending on who you believe, 38 to 69 percent in the first year. I don’t have a clue, because I've never drilled a shale oil well. But we do know that those are fairly short-lived, too. So this has been great fun, and it may last a while. But I would suspect it’s not quite the boom that the press seems to think it is. We’ll find out. - in HardAssetsInvestor
Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.
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